July 15, 2009

Value Traps

DEAR FRIENDS OF CARDINAL GROUP INVESTMENTS (CGI),

As active real estate investors and market analysts, we receive mountains of research data and commentary daily. Every once in a while a topic will come up that incites heated debate among our partners, associates and clients. To inject a little civility into these discussions, we have decided to put out a regular newsletter. After all, we have the pleasure of working for and with some of the smartest people in the business and we’d hate to miss an opportunity to learn. 




This quarter we’re taking a look at real estate valuation traps from two vantage points: the private market for direct property investment and the public market for REIT stocks. The big debate today in real estate circles is how to value investment real estate in the face of all the uncertainty and upheaval in the financial and property markets. 




The world is changing quickly: In the last 18 months we’ve seen the collapse of several major financial institutions, fraud committed on a truly epic scale, an overhaul of 100-years of business regulation and the evaporation of more than $10 trillion of household wealth.




To invest profitably, we need to develop an analytical framework for dealing with this uncertainly. At CGI, we prefer to keep things simple—to seek out tangible anchors in all of the noise created by anecdotes, overwhelming statistics and the chattering class of pundits and market forecasters[1] that are so prevalent these days. So here’s a quick primer on our internal thought process and how we’re trying to navigate our way in these uncertain times. We hope you’ll join the conversation.